Week 1 Picks

So here we go, we’ve got a data set that is big enough to start the fun for each team (9 premier league games, 12 championship games,  14 league one games and 7 league two games all played) as well as whatever could be the biggest upset season in Scotland, providing a great opportunity for enhanced odds!

We’re always try and avoid the peril of the early kick off so looking at the data of xG, form and injury news we can look to find a minimum of 2 teams to win and 3 not to loose as we spread the risk.

Livingston vs Hibernian – Scottish Premiership Preview (1 Nov 2025)

The Tony Macaroni Arena hosts a crucial clash as bottom-placed Livingston (xG: 8.1, xGA: 18.4) face fourth-placed Hibernian (xG: 14.6, xGA: 11.2). Livingston average 0.81 xG per match, with 6.7 xG from open play, 1.1 xG from set pieces, and 0.3 xG penalties, but their defensive record is alarming: 1.84 xGA per game, including 0.42 xGA from corners. Hibernian, by contrast, generate 1.46 xG per match, split as 11.9 xG open play, 2.1 xG set pieces, and 0.6 xG penalties, reflecting a more balanced attack. Advanced metrics show Hibs’ xGOT (expected goals on target) at 12.3, compared to Livingston’s 6.2, highlighting superior shot quality. Recent head-to-head favors Hibs, who won 4-0 earlier this month. With Livingston conceding high-quality chances and Hibs excelling in transitions, the visitors are strong favourites to dominate both territory and chance creation.

Hearts vs Dundee – Scottish Premiership Preview (1 Nov 2025)

Tynecastle Park hosts a top-versus-bottom clash as leaders Hearts (xG: 21.8, xGA: 9.4) face 11th-placed Dundee (xG: 9.2, xGA: 15.6). Hearts average 2.18 xG per match, split into 17.3 xG from open play, 3.2 xG from set pieces, and 1.3 xG penalties, reflecting their attacking depth. Their xGOT (expected goals on target) stands at 19.6, highlighting clinical finishing. Defensively, they allow just 0.94 xGA per game, with only 0.18 xGA from corners. Dundee, by contrast, generate 0.92 xG per match, mostly from open play (7.4 xG), with 1.1 xG from set pieces and 0.7 xG penalties. Their xGOT is a modest 7.8, underlining poor shot quality, while conceding 1.56 xGA per game, including 0.36 xGA from set pieces. Hearts’ unbeaten run and dominance in chance creation make them overwhelming favourites.

Charlton vs Swansea – Championship Preview (1 Nov 2025)

The Valley hosts a key clash as sixth-placed Charlton (xG: 15.2, xGA: 11.4) take on 13th-placed Swansea (xG: 13.1, xGA: 14.6). Charlton average 1.27 xG per match, with 11.8 xG from open play, 2.4 xG from set pieces, and 1.0 xG penalties. Their xGOT (expected goals on target) stands at 13.9, reflecting strong shot quality. Defensively, they concede 0.95 xGA per game, including 0.22 xGA from corners. Swansea generate 1.09 xG per match, split as 9.7 xG open play, 2.0 xG set pieces, and 1.4 xG penalties, but their xGOT is just 10.2, indicating less clinical finishing. They allow 1.21 xGA per game, with 0.31 xGA from set pieces, exposing vulnerability on dead balls. Charlton’s home form and superior chance creation make them favourites, while Swansea must rely on defensive discipline and counter-attacks to avoid defeat.

AFC Wimbledon vs Gateshead – FA Cup Preview (1 Nov 2025)

Plough Lane hosts an intriguing FA Cup tie as League One side AFC Wimbledon (xG: 16.4, xGA: 13.2) face National League outfit Gateshead (xG: 12.1, xGA: 15.8). Wimbledon average 1.37 xG per match, split into 13.2 xG from open play, 2.4 xG from set pieces, and 0.8 xG penalties, with an xGOT (expected goals on target) of 14.6, showing strong shot quality. Defensively, they concede 1.10 xGA per game, including 0.28 xGA from corners. Gateshead generate 1.01 xG per match, mostly from open play (9.3 xG), with 1.6 xG from set pieces and 1.2 xG penalties, but their xGOT is only 9.8, indicating less clinical finishing. They allow 1.42 xGA per game, with 0.34 xGA from set pieces, exposing vulnerability on dead balls. Wimbledon’s superior chance creation and home advantage make them strong favourites, while Gateshead will rely on set-piece efficiency to cause an upset.

West Ham vs Newcastle – Premier League (2 Nov 2025)

The London Stadium hosts a crucial clash as struggling West Ham (xG: 7.6, xGA: 14.8) face an improving Newcastle (xG: 11.9, xGA: 8.2). The Hammers rank 18th for expected goals, averaging 0.84 xG per match, with just 0.12 xG from set pieces and 7.48 xG from open play. Their defensive frailties show in 1.64 xGA per game, conceding 0.35 xGA from corners. Newcastle, by contrast, generate 1.32 xG per match, split as 9.9 xG open play, 1.6 xG set pieces, and 0.4 xG penalties, reflecting a more balanced attack. Eddie Howe’s side also boast an xGOT (expected goals on target) of 9.1, indicating clinical finishing potential, while West Ham lag at 5.4 xGOT. With Newcastle unbeaten in six visits here and West Ham winless in four under Nuno Espírito Santo, the Magpies’ superior chance quality and defensive solidity make them strong favourites.

Hibs	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Hearts	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Wimbledon	1	x	1	1	x	1	x	x
Charlton	1	1	x	1	1	x	x	x
Newcastle	1	1	1	x	x	x	1	x	Total Stake
Stake	£25	£10	£25	£14	£4	£9	£6	£3	£96
Potential win	£300	£437	£426	£419	£422	£440	£425	£416